If the roiling markets of 2011 left you feeling a little seasick, you might want to steer clear of the market for the first half of 2012 too -- if you believe TD Securities' 2012 forecast.
In its 2012 Outlook report, released in mid-December, the bank calls for increased volatility (!!) in 2012 and a bumpy first half dominated by -- surprise, surprise -- the euro zone's troubles.
But Q1 -- when TD expects a "hard default" by Greece -- should see the lowest prices of the year for copper, oil, palladium, platinum and silver as demand for commodities softens in emerging nations. (TD forecasts Chinese growth at only 7.8% this year). Renewed fears over the outcome of the European sovereign debt crisis will also hit commodities prices, with investors steering clear of risk. The authors predict that even gold won't be immune as investors sell the yellow metal to increase liquidity.
But the report strikes an upbeat tone for commodities come summer.
"In sharp contrast, the latter part of 2012 looks much more robust for commodities, with prices moving sharply higher into Q3-2012. We expect the worst of the financial crisis to be over in the second half of the year and see China undertaking aggressive fiscal and monetary action to jumpstart growth, which should send commodity demand sharply higher."
TD predicts palladium will be a big winner of 2012, and suggests buying palladium at US$616 per oz. (with a protective US$550 put) and a target of US$825.
"By mid-year, we should have more clarity on the European situation and many of the central banks around the world should have injected plenty of liquidity into the system, including large balance sheet expansions. Therefore, palladium, as a precious metal, should move much higher into year's end."
Also helping to drive commodities and gold higher in the second half are supply concerns, geopolitical risk in the Middle East, further quantitative easing from the Fed, and the likelihood that the ECB (European Central Bank) will act as a lender of last resort to euro zone countries.
RBC Economics also sees light at the end of the tunnel in its 2012 forecast.
Rather than the world ending in December 2012, as some interpret the Mayan calendar to predict, an RBC report from mid-December predicts a renewal of sorts post-2012.
"While 2012 may, at times, feel as if doomsday has arrived, we expect 2013 will be the start of a prosperous cycle driven by strong global growth and the return to sounder fiscal practices," says the report.
Before we get there, RBC predicts the euro area will have another quarter of contraction in Q1 2012, slipping into a shallow and short-lived recession.
The bank also sees slower growth in emerging economies in the first half of 2012, but predicts a rebound in the second half - although growth will still be slower than last year. RBC pegs China to grow at 8.4% in 2012 - far from a hard landing.
As for metals prices, RBC anticipates they will remain lower than recent peaks, but still "well above" historical averages.
In a late December report, Scotia Capital's vice-president economics Patricia Mohr predicts that copper will see the biggest price gains in 2012. Those forecast increases are due to fundamentals: even with a projected 6% increase in global mine supply this year, copper will remain in a supply deficit. (In 2011, copper mine supply rose by just 0.4% followed by several years of 1% growth that coincided with rising demand from China.)
While the first quarter could see China's growth slowing, Mohr expects growth to pick up in the spring - sending commodity prices higher and the copper price back up to US$4 per lb. Copper could remain at just under US$4 for much of 2013 as well. (Copper reached a new record high of US$4.60 last February.)
Looking further down the road, to the middle of the decade, Mohr anticipates that zinc prices will strengthen significantly because of mine depletion around the world.
And the United States? BMO Nesbitt Burns forecasts that U.S. growth will pick up a little in 2012 (to 2.2% from 1.7% last year) while growth in Canada will slow a little (to 2% from 2.3% in 2011). The U.S. forecast assumes that Congress will extend the payroll tax holiday and unemployment insurance benefits beyond Feb. 29.
U.S. growth should improve to 2.6% in 2013 but "federal government belt-tightening" could eat into that significantly.